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There seems to be general agreement that there is a strong chance of this year's US presidential elections ending up at the Supreme Court again. I now read here:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-11-01-court_x.htm

(and elsewhere) that things could be worse...

It seems that Chief Justice Rehnquist not only has thyroid cancer but could be unable to sit in the SC for weeks or months. The possibility that he won't ever sit there again - he's 80, has cancer, has just had a tracheaotomy and is clearly ill - also exists. Rehnquist is currently the tie breaker in the court, swinging many decisions, including the result of the last presidential election, to the right.

What if we have a repeat of 2000, but, in Rehnquist's absence, now have an evenly split supreme court? Any likely remedy for this in the Consitiution (I don't know it so well that I know what it says) is likely to rest with those currently in power, who would happily swing the election in their own favour, but the public would clearly see this as self serving.

Let's hope there's a clear result tonight, and that everyone reading this who can vote, does.
Mood:: 'worried' worried
Music:: The fans!
There are 11 comments on this entry. (Reply.)
 
posted by [identity profile] overconvergent.livejournal.com at 03:22am on 02/11/2004
Rehnquist isn't a swing voter on the court; he doesn't break the ties. He's one of the "conservative block" (the others are Thomas and Scalia).

The swing voters tend to be judges like O'Connor and Kennedy.

If the vote is 4-4 then the decision of whichever lower court it came from stands, I think, but only in the lower court's jurisdiction (this theoretically could have happened in the Pledge of Allegiance case recently IIRC, as Scalia recused himself from voting).
 
posted by [identity profile] purplecthulhu.livejournal.com at 03:25am on 02/11/2004
I didn't mean to suggest that Rehnquist was a swing vote, merely that he ensures that the balance of power is to the right.

Apologies for my poor wording.
 
posted by [identity profile] canadian-worm.livejournal.com at 12:27pm on 02/11/2004
The SC is slanted 5-4 in favour of the "conservative block". On an issue such as this, you're not going to get a 4-4 tie, just won't happen. I can't see any SC judge recusing themselves or abstaining or anything other than voting for "their" candidate.
 
posted by [identity profile] overconvergent.livejournal.com at 01:22pm on 02/11/2004
The analysis I've seen identifies 3 blocks - "liberal" (3ish), "moderate" (3ish) and "conservative" (3). The alliances shift quite a bit - Lawrence v Texas wasn't decided in a "conservative" way, for instance.

But I can't see any Justice who is still alive recusing themselves or abstaining, as you say.
 
posted by [identity profile] canadian-worm.livejournal.com at 02:03pm on 02/11/2004
Okay, I was confining my analysis to just the most divisive issues, where the SC seems to split 5-4 (almost always the same way).

You're very knowledgeable about this, so maybe you would know: after Nov 2, but before the inaugeration, can the President (as of Nov 1, because say the election is in dispute) appoint a replacement SC judge if one of the judges should happen to have died or become incapacitated to the point that they cannot perform their function?
 
posted by [identity profile] canadian-worm.livejournal.com at 02:07pm on 02/11/2004
A little more...

Are there emergency powers or anything that would allow the bypassing of the usual process (the senate confirmation hearings, etc.)?
 
posted by [identity profile] overconvergent.livejournal.com at 02:56pm on 02/11/2004
The Presidential term runs until January 4th 2005 IIRC, so no matter who wins Bush will stay President until then (this used to be some time in March, which really was ridiculous. All sorts of weird stuff happened sometimes!)

There aren't any emergency powers to replace SC Justices that I know of. Given that the Senate is so evenly split, any even remotely controversial judge wouldn't have a chance of being appointed.

There's a session of Congress *after* the elections (a lame duck session), and theoretically a new judge could be appointed then, but I would be extremely surprised if one *could* be confirmed quickly enough. They have enough to tie up in that session already. So we are left with the 9 current judges until at least the New Year.
 
posted by [identity profile] alexmc.livejournal.com at 05:51am on 02/11/2004
Wasn't this a plotline in "The West Wing"? No, well it could have been.

I don't remember if a SC judge can retire. I think he has to die, right? Doesn't this sound like the House of Lords?
 
posted by [identity profile] purplecthulhu.livejournal.com at 06:06am on 02/11/2004
If it is in WW, then I've not got that far yet (I'm around the start of the third series).

SC judges can, I think, retire, but its *they're* choice. Nobody can fire them, which is kind of the point with an independent judiciary. I think the same does apply to the Law Lords, at least at the moment.
 
posted by [identity profile] overconvergent.livejournal.com at 01:27pm on 02/11/2004
They can be impeached, but it hasn't happened recently (the last one that I know of happened in 1804-1805, and failed).

Supreme Court Justices can retire, but often they will hang on until a sympathetic President can replace them.
 
posted by [identity profile] canadian-worm.livejournal.com at 10:48am on 02/11/2004
Just think of the election as having three phases:
- the campaign phase
- the litigation phase
- the inauguration phase (also known as the protest phase)

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